Regensburg 2022 – wissenschaftliches Programm

Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Aktualisierungen | Downloads | Hilfe

DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 45: Poster Session: Nonlinear Dynamics, Pattern Formation, Data Analytics and Machine Learning

DY 45.1: Poster

Donnerstag, 8. September 2022, 15:00–18:00, P2

Influence of protective measures on rare-event behavior of the dynamics of the SIR model. — •Timo Marks, Yannick Feld, and Alexander K. Hartmann — Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg

Since the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, there has been a surge of interest in modeling disease spreading. The basis of many more complex models is the SIR model [1], in which the population is divided into a group of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals.

Here, the SIR model is applied to a small-world ensemble that can model social interactions of a real population [2]. Using large-deviation methods and in particular the Wang-Landau algorithm, the distributions of quantities of interest can be calculated over basically the full support [3]. To include protective measures, once a predefined threshold of simultaneously infected nodes is reached, the transmission parameter is decreased. We compare the impact of these measures with unrestrained disease spreading on the level of the full probability distributions, which were obtained down to probabilities such as 10⁻⁵⁰. We thereby observe significant changes in the shape of the distributions.

[1] W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 115, 700*721 (1927)

[2] S. Milgram, Psychology Today 1, 60*67 (1967)

[3] Y. Feld, A. K. Hartmann, PhysRevE.105.034313 (2022)