Regensburg 2022 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 9: Physics of Contagion Processes

SOE 9.1: Vortrag

Dienstag, 6. September 2022, 10:15–10:45, H11

Emergence of synergistic and competitive pathogens in a coevolutionary spreading model — Philipp Hövel¹, Alessio Cardillo², Kai Seegers³, and •Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad⁴ — ¹University College Cork, Ireland — ²Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain — ³Technische Universität Berlin, Germany — ⁴Sharif University of Technology, Iran

Cooperation and competition between pathogens can alter the amount of individuals affected by a coinfection giving rise to phenomena like comorbidity and cross-immunity. However, the evolution of the pathogens’ behavior has been underexplored. We present a coevolutionary model where the simultaneous spreading is described by a two-pathogen susceptible-infected-recovered model in an either synergistic or competitive manner. At the end of each epidemic season, the pathogens species reproduce according to their fitness following a replicator equation. The fitness depends on the payoff accumulated during the spreading season in a hawk-and-dove game. We demonstrate that the proposed coevolutionary model displays a rich set of features and emergent behavior. For example, the evolution of the pathogens’ strategy induces abrupt transitions in the epidemic prevalence. Furthermore, we observe that the long-term dynamics results in a single, surviving pathogen species, and that the cooperative behavior of pathogens can emerge even under unfavorable conditions.