Regensburg 2022 – scientific programme

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TUT: Tutorien

TUT 4: Stochastic Processes from Financial Risk to Genetics (joint session SOE/TUT/BP/DY)

TUT 4.3: Tutorial

Sunday, September 4, 2022, 17:40–18:30, H4

Risk Revealed: Cautionary Tales, Understanding and Communication — •Paul Embrechts — Department of Mathematics, ETH Zürich

The title of the tutorial refers to a forthcoming book, to be published by Cambridge University Press, co-authored with Valérie Chavez-Demoulin (Lausanne) and Marius Hofert (Waterloo). Extreme Value Theory (EVT) offers a mathematical tool for the modeling of so-called What-If events, or stress scenarios. I will present several examples of risk-based decision-making and show how EVT can be used as part of the solution. The current pandemic has clearly shown that the communication of scientific evidence has a difficult stand in the ubiquitous environment of social media. I will discuss some examples of this struggle.