SKM 2023 – scientific programme
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 49: Critical Phenomena and Phase Transitions
DY 49.4: Talk
Thursday, March 30, 2023, 15:45–16:00, ZEU 160
Predictive percolation: assessing fire connectivity in California — Olivia Hemond1, •Diego Rybski1,2,3, Ariani C. Wartenberg1,4, Katherine J. Siegel5, and Van Butsic1 — 1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States — 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - PIK, Member of Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany — 3Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstädterstrasse 39, A-1090 Vienna, Austria — 4Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany — 5Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Damages from wildfire are increasing globally. Analyzing historical California fire data from 1950-2019, we propose a new method to estimate the percolation threshold, which represents statewide connectivity of fire-affected habitats. We create grid realizations of burnt areas over various time spans, measure the critical distances, and explore analogies with continuum percolation to predict the percolation threshold. Fires within our study period trend towards but do not yet reach percolation. We calculate the percolation threshold to be 45.8% of the state?s burnable area. Assuming fire patterns similar to the past seventy years, it would take 146.5 years, starting from 1950, to reach percolation across California. Within time periods shorter than 146 years, wildfire-affected areas are fragmented.