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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 23: Economic Models

SOE 23.2: Vortrag

Freitag, 31. März 2023, 11:15–11:30, ZEU 260

Assessing the impact of extreme weather events on the global market for staple food — •Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip¹ and Ebobenow Joseph² — ¹Institute of Applied Geosciences, Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany — ²Physics Department, University of Buea, Cameroon.

The impacts of increasing extreme weather events under future warming may exacerbate global food insecurity. Assessing the economic impact of these disasters in the agricultural sector is critical for early mitigation planning. We model the impacts of extreme weather events by perturbing the agricultural sectors of some breadbasket regions (USA, EU, and China) with a uniform forcing for both single and concurrent extreme weather event scenarios. We consider forcing data from the 2018 Summer European heatwave. This heatwave simultaneously affected multiple Northern-hemisphere mid-latitude locations. We compute and compare the production and consumption value losses in the corn, rice, wheat, soybean, and other agricultural sectors using the FAO data and an agent-based economic model Acclimate. We show that simultaneous extreme weather events can exacerbate the loss of value of agricultural production relative to single extreme weather events. The highest global repercussion is felt in the rice sector compared to other sectors under study for concurrent extreme events scenarios involving China. Moreover, the global commodity market is hardest hit when regions that are major producers of that commodity are affected by extreme weather events such as corn for the USA, wheat for Europe, rice for Southeast Asia, and soybean for Brazil.