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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 6: Physics of Contagion Processes II (joint session SOE/DY)
SOE 6.1: Talk
Tuesday, March 28, 2023, 10:00–10:15, ZEU 260
Explosive Epidemics — •Georg Börner1, Malte Schröder1, Davide Scarselli2, Nazmi Burak Budanur2,3, Björn Hof2, and Marc Timme1,4,5 — 1Chair for Network Dynamics, Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden (cfaed) and Institute of Theoretical Physics, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden 01062, Germany — 2Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Klosterneuburg, Austria — 3Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany — 4Cluster of Excellence Physics of Life, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden 01062 Germany — 5Lakeside Labs, Lakeside B04b, 9020 Klagenfurt, Austria
Standard epidemic models exhibit one continuous, second order phase transition to macroscopic outbreaks. However, interventions to control outbreaks may fundamentally alter epidemic dynamics. We reveal how such interventions modify the type of phase transition. In particular, we uncover three distinct types of explosive phase transitions for epidemic dynamics with capacity-limited interventions. Depending on the capacity limit, interventions may (i) leave the standard second-order phase transition unchanged but exponentially suppress the probability of large outbreaks, (ii) induce a first-order discontinuous transition to macroscopic outbreaks, or (iii) cause a secondary explosive yet continuous third-order transition. These insights highlight inherent limitations in predicting and containing epidemic outbreaks. More generally our study offers a cornerstone example of a third-order explosive phase transition in complex systems.