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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 6: Physics of Contagion Processes II (joint session SOE/DY)
SOE 6.2: Talk
Tuesday, March 28, 2023, 10:15–10:30, ZEU 260
Large-deviations of the SIR model under the influence of Lockdowns — Leo Patrick Mulholland1, •Yannick Feld2, and Alexander K. Hartmann2 — 1Queen’s University Belfast, United Kingdom — 2Institute of Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, Germany
Due to the high real-wold impact of diseases, the modelling of its dynamics has long since become an important aspect of various disciplines. Statistical physics is one of them as it gives us the tools investigate the fundamental processes through which a disease spreads throughout a population.
The transmission of a disease is affected by a lot of different factors. For example in response to the SARS-CoV 2 pandemic many governmental bodies imposed interventions to impede the spread of disease. One of the earliest non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that most countries used were lockdowns.
Motivated by that, we numerically [1] study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with lockdowns on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach, which was previously used to study the case of an unimpeded spread [2]. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the cumulative fraction of infected nodes down to very small probabilities like 10−55. The density exhibits remarkable discontinuties of the first derivative.
[1] A.K. Hartmann, Big Practical Guide to Computer Simulations (World Scientific, 2015)
[2] Y. Feld, A. K. Hartmann, Phys. Rev. E 105 17 (2022)