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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 9: Focus Session: Critical Transitions in Society, Economy, and Nature (joint session SOE/DY)

SOE 9.3: Topical Talk

Mittwoch, 29. März 2023, 10:45–11:15, ZEU 260

Critical transition to monsoon: statistical physics principles of monsoon forecasting — •Elena Surovyatkina — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany — Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IKI), Moscow, Russia

Numerical weather models are limited to forecasting the weather for up to 5 days in the future. A fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the spatial differential equations used to simulate the atmosphere. The limitations of current prediction models prevent further progress.

I present a recently developed approach fundamentally different from the numerical weather and climate models. It is based on statistical physics principles and recently discovered spatial-temporal regularities (or teleconnections between Tipping Elements) in a monsoon system.

First, I begin with evidence in observational data that the transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon is a critical transition. Second, I show how to detect the Tipping elements in the spatial organization of monsoon using the phenomenon of critical growth of fluctuations. Third, I explain how the regularities between the Tipping Elements allow predicting the upcoming monsoon onset and withdrawal for 40 and 70 days in advance, respectively.

Furthermore, I present the results of retrospective tests from 1951 to 2015, which show 73 % success for monsoon onset and 84 % for a withdrawal date. Remarkably, that forecasts of future monsoons showed to be successful already seven years in a row, 2016-2022.