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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 9: Focus Session: Critical Transitions in Society, Economy, and Nature (joint session SOE/DY)

SOE 9.5: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 29. März 2023, 11:30–11:45, ZEU 260

The war in Ukraine, a statistical analysis — •Juergen Mimkes — Physics Department, Paderborn University

War is a serious disruption of normal social order and may be analyzed by statistics. In homogeneous systems the Lagrange function depends on two Lagrange factors: L (λ, p). In physics, they are mean energy or temperature (λ) and pressure (p). In politics, they are mean capital or standard of living (λ) and military pressure (p). The factors (λ),(p) determine the state or phases of a system. In materials we have solid, liquid, gas, in politics autocratic, democratic, global. Different phases can only coexist at equilibrium in the phase diagram. Outside of equilibrium water and ice cannot coexist in close contact, water is melting ice (climate crisis). Outside of equilibrium democracy and autocracy cannot coexist in close contact, democracy is *melting* autocracy since the Marshall plan in 1947. Accordingly, there has been an aggressive reaction by the autocracy: DDR 1953, Hungary 1956, CSR 1968, Ukraine 2014. There is no chance for peace, unless one party vanishes. The only solution to keep hot and cold together is a thermos, and to keep democracy and autocracy side by side is a new iron curtain like in Korea or Europe (1961 to 1989).