SKM 2023 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SYOF: Symposium Dynamics of Opinion Formation – From Quorum Sensing to Polarization

SYOF 1: Dynamics of Opinion Formation – From Quorum Sensing to Polarization

SYOF 1.2: Hauptvortrag

Montag, 27. März 2023, 10:00–10:30, HSZ 01

Polarization in attitude distributions from surveys and models of continuous opinion dynamics — •Jan Lorenz and Martin Gestefeld — Constructor University (formerly Jacobs University), Bremen, Germany

Empirical attitude distributions from the European Social Survey often have non-trivial shapes with varying degrees of polarization. We analyze a large sample of 4,155 attitude distribution from various European countries and topics like left-right self-placement, European unification, and the cultural implications of migrations (and several others) for years between 2002 to 2018. All opinion distributions are built on questions with an 11-point quasi-continuous scale. Even in this one-dimensional setting, measuring polarization has many aspects, but not all are empirically relevant. Many distributions have up to five modes with modes: Two at both extremes, one in the center, and two off-center. We specify a measurement model for these opinion distributions and use it to decompose polarization. Finally, we discuss to what extent an opinion dynamics model with individual attitude change functions from psychological theory can replicate the empirically observed attitude distributions as stable outcomes.