SMuK 2023 – scientific programme

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P: Fachverband Plasmaphysik

P 12: Poster II

P 12.35: Poster

Wednesday, March 22, 2023, 17:30–19:00, HSZ EG

Uncertainty Quantification for Multiscale Turbulent Transport Simulations — •Yehor Yudin, David Coster, Udo von Toussaint, and Frank Jenko — Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Boltzmannstrasse2, 85748 Garching, Germany

One of the challenges in understanding the energy and particle transport processes in the core plasma of a magnetic confinement fusion device is to quantify how they are affected by turbulent dynamics. This work considers a multiscale approach to modelling this problem, where the numerical solution is obtained for coupled models describing processes on different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, we investigate epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in the profiles of the quantities transported in this model. This work proposes an application of a surrogate modelling technique to reduce the computational cost of resolving a quasi-steady state solution on the microscale when it is sufficient to capture only statistics of the turbulent dynamics. We study a Multiscale Fusion Workflow that utilizes turbulent energy and particle fluxes computed with a gyrofluid turbulence code GEM in flux tube approximation to calculate the transport coefficients for core transport code ETS. In this work, a data-driven probabilistic surrogate model based on Gaussian Process Regression is used to infer flux values computed by a turbulence code for given core profiles and to calculate related uncertainties. We use the VECMA/SEAVEA toolkit to perform uncertainty quantification as well as to train, test, and utilize surrogate models.