SMuK 2023 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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T: Fachverband Teilchenphysik
T 64: Neutrino Astronomy III
T 64.4: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 22. März 2023, 16:35–16:50, POT/0051
Optimization of the Forward-Folding Likelihood Fit for the Astrophysical Muon Neutrino Analysis with IceCube — •Matthias Thiesmeyer1, Jakob Böttcher1, Shuyang Deng1, Philipp Fürst1, Erik Ganster1, Jonas Hellrung1, Sharif El Mentawi1, Richard Naab2, and Christopher Wiebusch1 for the IceCube collaboration — 1III. Physikalisches Institut B, RWTH Aachen University — 2DESY, Zeuthen, Germany
One important detection channel for astrophysical neutrinos in IceCube is neutrino-induced muon tracks. The astrophysical flux parameters are estimated using a explicit forward-folding likelihood fit of the measured neutrino data. Here, the binned distribution of reconstructed zenith and energy is compared to the number of expected events from atmospheric and astrophysical neutrino fluxes by means of a profile likelihood. To maximize the sensitivity to the astrophysical neutrino flux properties we optimize and generalize the choice of binning. A particular challenge is limited Monte-Carlo statistics for the estimation of precise templates over the full parameter space. As an optimization metric we extend the simple Poissonian likelihood to an effective likelihood that includes the uncertainties of the bin predictions caused by limited Monte-Carlo statistics. By this we can balance between a limited measurement resolution in cases where the binning is too coarse, and a higher statistical uncertainty of the bin predictions in cases where the binning is too fine.