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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 3: Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Disarmament

AGA 3.1: Hauptvortrag

Donnerstag, 21. März 2024, 09:30–10:30, PTB HS HvHB

The Three-Body Problem in Nuclear Deterrence — •Steve Fetter — Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland

U.S. intelligence agencies are projecting that China*s nuclear arsenal will expand to 1500 warheads by 2035. For the first time, the United States will confront two nuclear peers. These potential adversaries have entered into a *no limits* partnership that may include coordination of military forces and opportunistic aggression. In response, a recent U.S. commission declared that "modifications to both strategic nuclear forces and theater nuclear forces are urgently necessary*; others have called for a doubling of U.S. nuclear forces. But expansion of U.S. nuclear forces is neither necessary nor wise. Current and planned U.S. forces are more than adequate to deter both Russia and China if it abandons counterforce targeting, which generates increased force requirements and increases the risk of nuclear escalation. Although it is often claimed that alternatives to counterforce violate the laws of war, there is little difference in terms of civilian deaths.

Keywords: Nuclear arsenals; Arms Race; Nuclear war casualties; Laws of War; Nuclear Modernization