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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 6: Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Proliferation

AGA 6.3: Talk

Thursday, March 21, 2024, 17:30–18:00, PTB HS HvHB

Building a Fuel Cycle Simulation Toolkit for Nuclear Verification — •Max Schalz and Malte Göttsche — Nuclear Verification and Disarmament Group, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany

Nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) codes are regularly used in civilian nuclear programmes, for example to model energy transition scenarios. In contrast to this, NFC simulators have not yet been established in verification or disarmament contexts, despite their many benefits. We present Bicyclus, an open-source Python3 framework aimed at analysing NFCs in such contexts. Bicyclus couples Cyclus, an existing NFC simulator, to a Monte Carlo and a Bayesian inference software. These couplings open up various new applications: The Monte Carlo approach can be used to propagate uncertainties and improve fissile material estimates, while the Bayesian approach is relevant in verification scenarios to reconstruct past NFC operations. We demonstrate both applications in a case study based on a complex, military NFC with HEU and plutonium production, as well as capacities to re-enrich reprocessed, irradiated uranium.

Keywords: non-proliferation; disarmament; Cyclus; bayesian inference; Bicyclus