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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 28: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (joint session SOE/DY)
DY 28.11: Talk
Wednesday, March 20, 2024, 17:45–18:00, TC 006
Network percolation provides early warnings of abrupt changes in coupled oscillatory systems: An explanatory analysis — Noémie Ehstand1, •Reik V. Donner2,3, Cristóbal López1, and Emilio Hernández-García1 — 1IFISC, Palma de Mallorca, Spain — 2Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany — 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in spatially extended or multivariable systems. In particular, percolation properties of correlation networks have been employed to identify early warning signals of critical transitions. Here, we further study the potential of percolation measures for the anticipation of different types of sudden shifts in the state of coupled irregularly oscillating systems. For a ring of diffusively coupled noisy FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators that are nearly completely synchronized, the percolation-based precursors successfully provide very early warnings of the rapid switches between the two states of the system. We clarify the mechanisms behind the percolation transition by separating global trends given by the mean-field behavior from the synchronization of individual stochastic fluctuations. We then apply the same methodology to real-world data of sea surface temperature anomalies during different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This leads to a better understanding of the factors that make percolation precursors effective as early warning indicators of incipient El Niño and La Niña events. [N. Ehstand et al., Phys. Rev. E, 108, 054207, 2023]