Berlin 2024 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 14: Focus Session: Dynamics of Socio-ecological Systems

SOE 14.3: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 20. März 2024, 11:50–12:10, MA 001

Low-complexity model of climate change, wealth and energy transition to capture political cost of energy policies — •Diana L. Monroy and Frank Hellmann — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The energy transition is a pathway toward transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon technologies. In this context, devising policies that facilitate a transition to low-carbon energy systems requires an understanding of the political and economic costs of energy and climate policy formulation, both in the short and long-term to contribute to a better description of the challenges and determinants of policy choices that impact energy supplies, markets, and consumption.

This work proposes an alternative approach of modelling environmental and socioeconomic dynamics in presence of policy choices using Complex Systems. The objective is to capture the political and economical cost of energy policies based on the main assumption that there is a high political cost of redistributing economic activity.

The model is based in the AYS low-complexity model of climate change, wealth and energy transition incorporating energy policies to mitigate climate change. In the extended model we propose, the co-evolution of the natural and socio-economic system is effected by two main policies: (i) Research Program for Renewable Knowledge and (ii) Carbon Taxation. We use this model to optimize over time the parameters associated to the CCPs.

Keywords: Energy transition; Political cost; Economic cost; Renewable knowledge