Berlin 2024 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 14: Focus Session: Dynamics of Socio-ecological Systems

SOE 14.4: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 20. März 2024, 12:15–12:30, MA 001

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points — •Jonathan F. Donges^1,2, J. Marty Anderies³, Wolfram Barfuss^1,4,5, Ingo Fetzer², Jobst Heitzig¹, and Johan Rockström^1,2 — ¹Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany — ²Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden — ³School of Sustainability and School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, USA — ⁴Transdisciplinary Research Area: Sustainable Futures, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany — ⁵Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

The Anthropocene is characterized by the strengthening of planetary-scale interactions between the biophysical Earth system (ES) and human societies. This increasing social-ecological entanglement poses new challenges for studying possible future World-Earth system (WES) trajectories and World-Earth resilience defined as the capacity of the system to absorb and regenerate from anthropogenic stresses. We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth resilience. Because conventional system concepts of stability and resilience are hampered by the rapid and open-ended social, cultural, economic and technological evolution of human societies, we focus on the notion of pathway resilience, i.e. the relative number of paths that allow the WES to move from the currently occupied transitional states towards a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene.

Keywords: resilience; inequality; World-Earth system modeling; pathway diversity; tipping points