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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 4: Collective Dynamics

SOE 4.2: Vortrag

Montag, 18. März 2024, 15:15–15:30, MA 001

Impact of Temperature Change on Malaria Outbreaks — Morteza Afraz¹ and •Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad² — ¹Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran — ²Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Malaria, a vector-borne disease, remains a critical global health concern, particularly amid shifting climate patterns. This research delves into the intricate interplay between temperature variations and the dynamics of malaria transmission through an extensive analysis of deterministic mathematical models such as Ross-MacDonald and Parham and Michael models. Thus, we study the impact of temperature change on models' predictions, specifically the outbreak of malaria within populations. We explore fixed points, assessing their stability across varying temperature regimes, gauging the disease's sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, conducting bifurcation analyses, and elucidating phase transitions observable within these models. We employ empirical field data for temperature dependency and discuss which model's output aligns better with observed epidemiological trends. Finally, we present our predictions for the landscape of malaria transmission in the face of climate variations for different regions.

Keywords: Malaria Dynamics; Temperature Variations; Deterministic Mathematical Models; Epidemiological Trends