Berlin 2024 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 7: Poster
SOE 7.8: Poster
Montag, 18. März 2024, 18:00–20:30, Poster D
Ising model of binary election with a split society phase — Olivier Devauchelle1, Piotr Szymczak2, and •Piotr Nowakowski3,4 — 1Université Paris Cité, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France — 2Institute of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland — 3Group for Computational Life Sciences, Division of Physical Chemistry, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia — 4Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Stuttgart, Germany
In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. To explain this phenomenon we propose a simple model of binary elections based on an Ising model of voters with ferromagnetic coupling of the neighbors and an additional weak antiferromagnetic coupling of every voter to the opinion poll. The model exhibits a new split society phase which properties seems to resemble those observed in some real binary elections: the voters are geographically separated into two groups (domains) with opposite opinions, the total result is close to 50%-50%, and an interface between the domains is located along the lines where the coupling between neighboring voters is reduced (like borders of cities, natural barriers, or historical borders between countries). We discuss the physical properties of our model and study the conditions necessary for the system to be in the split society phase. By analyzing the results of binary elections in various countries we are able to roughly estimate the values of the parameters describing our model.
Keywords: binary election; split society; Ising model; phase transition; statistical physics