Bonn 2025 – scientific programme
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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie
AKE 1: Innovative Contributions for the Energy System Transformation
AKE 1.2: Talk
Monday, March 10, 2025, 15:00–15:15, HS HISKP
Optimized transformation planning for municipal energy systems by coupling Agent-Based Modelling and Linear Programming — •Hannes Koch1, Stefan Lechner1, Michael Düren2, and Peter Winker3 — 1Institut für Thermodynamik, Energieverfahrenstechnik und Systemanalyse, Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen, Gießen — 2Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung, Gießen — 3Professur für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Justus-Liebig-Universität, Gießen
The transition to climate-neutral energy supply systems is an established necessity. This study provides a framework for detailed optimization and transformation of multi-sectoral energy systems at regional scales and applies it to the county of Giessen, Germany. The methodology combines an Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulating long-term consumer energy choices with a Linear Programming (LP) model that optimizes the economic and climate-neutral transformation of the energy supply system. The ABM incorporates empirical demand data, while the LP utilizes regional renewable energy potential assessments and a pool of available energy technologies to decarbonize the energy supply system. Our findings indicate that the primary drivers of decarbonization are the reduction of final energy demand through renovation of buildings and efficient last-use technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles. Additionally, the results suggest that local renewable electricity generation combined with sector coupling presents a more cost-effective and economically resilient solution compared to large-scale renewable energy carrier imports.
Keywords: decarbonization; energy system; modelling