Regensburg 2025 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik
BP 21: Networks, From Topology to Dynamics (joint session SOE/BP/DY)
BP 21.9: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 19. März 2025, 17:15–17:30, H45
The world air transportation network: import risk of diseases, pandemic potentials and passenger routes — •Pascal Klamser1,2, Adrian Zachariae1,2, Benjamin Maier3, Olga Baranov4, and Dirk Brockmann1,2 — 1Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany — 2Robert Koch-Institute, Berlin, Germany — 3University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark — 4LMU München, München, Germany
Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network. It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from the outbreak country, establishing a linear relationship to the arrival time of the unmitigated spread of a disease. However, in the early stages of an outbreak, what concerns decision-makers in countries is understanding the relative risk of active cases arriving in their country*essentially, the likelihood that an active case boarding an airplane at the outbreak location will reach them. While there are data-fitted models available to estimate these risks, accurate mechanistic, parameter-free models are still lacking.
We (i) introduce the "import risk" model, which defines import probabilities using the effective-distance framework, (ii) show its application to estimate the pandemic potential of emerging variants of COVID-19 and (iii) show that the effective distance shortest path tree, on which the "import risk" model is based on, is an extremely accurate representation of true passenger routes.
Keywords: world air transportation network; importation risk; pandemic