Regensburg 2025 – scientific programme

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 27: Poster: Nonlinear Dynamics, Pattern Formation, Granular Matter

DY 27.2: Poster

Wednesday, March 19, 2025, 15:00–18:00, P4

Identifying Change Points in Local Air Temperature Time Series — •Fatemeh Aghaei A., Ewan Thomas Phillips, and Holger Kantz — Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany

Global air temperature reconstructions consistently reveal a warming trend beginning around 1975, with signs of earlier increases since the early 20th century. However, regional temperature variations display complex, heterogeneous patterns that warrant deeper exploration. Understanding local climate change is critical for effective adaptation in health, agriculture, water management, and infrastructure sectors. By analyzing change points in regional warming trends, this study aims to identify periods of intensified climate change, suggesting potential historical tipping events.

In this paper, we analyze 2-meter mean daily temperature data from the ERA5 reanalysis project to track warming trends across a 1x1 degree global grid. By removing seasonal cycles, we capture temperature anomalies that reveal significant regional warming variations, with standard deviations of 4-6K depending on location. Recognizing that local warming is rarely linear, we fit two linear slopes with a change point to each grid point to capture change in warming trends. This approach produces global maps indicating the timing and magnitude of trend changes, highlighting regions where local warming has intensified.

Keywords: changing point; global warming; temperature anomalies; data analysis; dual-linear fit