Regensburg 2025 – scientific programme
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 10: Focus Session: Large Language Models, Social Dynamics, and Assessment of Complex Systems
SOE 10.11: Talk
Thursday, March 20, 2025, 18:00–18:15, H45
Optimizing pandemic mitigation in the presence of seasonality, emerging variants and vaccination — •Laura Müller1,2, Fabio Sartori1,3, Jonas Dehning1,2, Maximilian F. Eggl4, and Viola Priesemann1,2 — 1Max-Planck-Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany — 2Institute for the Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany — 3Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany — 4Institute of Neuroscience, CSIC-UMH, Alicante, Spain
Mitigation efforts are often necessary to control the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics and epidemics. However, these measures come with societal and economic costs. We present a general optimization framework based on control theory to balance the trade-off between mitigation costs and infection rates, aiming to identify the optimal time-dependent mitigation strategies across a range of scenarios: constant reproduction number, seasonal changes, emerging variants, vaccination rollout, and delayed mitigation onset. Our results show that timely reactions and proactive, preventative measures are crucial in pandemic management to save both lives and costs.
Keywords: Optimisation; Optimal control; Pandemic modelling; Pandemic management; Mitigation