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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 10: Focus Session: Large Language Models, Social Dynamics, and Assessment of Complex Systems

SOE 10.11: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 20. März 2025, 18:00–18:15, H45

Optimizing pandemic mitigation in the presence of seasonality, emerging variants and vaccination — •Laura Müller^1,2, Fabio Sartori^1,3, Jonas Dehning^1,2, Maximilian F. Eggl⁴, and Viola Priesemann^1,2 — ¹Max-Planck-Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany — ²Institute for the Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany — ³Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany — ⁴Institute of Neuroscience, CSIC-UMH, Alicante, Spain

Mitigation efforts are often necessary to control the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics and epidemics. However, these measures come with societal and economic costs. We present a general optimization framework based on control theory to balance the trade-off between mitigation costs and infection rates, aiming to identify the optimal time-dependent mitigation strategies across a range of scenarios: constant reproduction number, seasonal changes, emerging variants, vaccination rollout, and delayed mitigation onset. Our results show that timely reactions and proactive, preventative measures are crucial in pandemic management to save both lives and costs.

Keywords: Optimisation; Optimal control; Pandemic modelling; Pandemic management; Mitigation