Regensburg 2025 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 3: Poster
SOE 3.3: Poster
Montag, 17. März 2025, 17:30–19:30, P4
Unraveling 20th-century political regime dynamics using the physics of diffusion — •Paula Pirker-Díaz1, Sönke Beier1, Matthew Wilson2, and Karoline Wiesner1 — 1Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany — 2Department of Political Science, University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA
Uncertainty remains regarding why some countries democratize while others do not, and why some remain democratic while others backslide into autocracy. Also the nature and changes of intermediate regimes is particularly unclear. By applying the Diffusion Map, a spectral dimensionality-reduction technique, on V-Dem political data (1900-2021), we identify a low-dimensional manifold describing electoral regimes. Using the diffusion equation from statistical physics, we measure the time scale on which countries change their degree of electoral quality, freedom of association, and freedom of expression depending on their position on the manifold. Democracies show sub-diffusive dynamics, while collapsing autocracies exhibit super-diffusive dynamics. Intermediate regimes display distinct and more unstable diffusion behaviors, linked to a higher risk of civil conflict. This research bridges statistical physics and political science, offering a quantitative framework for understanding regime transformation and risk-of-conflict assessment. [arXiv:2411.11484]
Keywords: Anomalous diffusion; Political science; Regime transformation; Risk-of-conflict