Dresden 2009 – scientific programme
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 7: Statistical physics II (general)
DY 7.10: Talk
Tuesday, March 24, 2009, 12:15–12:30, HÜL 386
Finite-size effects and prediction of extreme events in the BTW model — •Anja Garber1, Holger Kantz1, and Sarah Hallerberg2 — 1Max-Planck-Institut für Physik komplexer Systeme, Dresden, Germany — 2Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
The BTW Abelian sandpile model is a prominent example of systems exhibiting self-organised criticality. Finite-size effects are studied with special emphasis on the statistics of extreme events. Not only the avalanche size probability distribution, but also the mutual independence of large avalanches is affected. Instead of a Poissonian recurrence time distribution, a temporal repulsion of extreme events is found in the finite system that depends on the avalanche size rather than on its respective probability.
Deriving a decision variable from the time series of avalanches, this effect can be used to predict the occurrence of a particularly large event in the next time step. The larger the magnitude of these target avalanches, the better is their predictability.