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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 7: Statistical physics II (general)

DY 7.10: Vortrag

Dienstag, 24. März 2009, 12:15–12:30, HÜL 386

Finite-size effects and prediction of extreme events in the BTW model — •Anja Garber¹, Holger Kantz¹, and Sarah Hallerberg² — ¹Max-Planck-Institut für Physik komplexer Systeme, Dresden, Germany — ²Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Santander, Spain

The BTW Abelian sandpile model is a prominent example of systems exhibiting self-organised criticality. Finite-size effects are studied with special emphasis on the statistics of extreme events. Not only the avalanche size probability distribution, but also the mutual independence of large avalanches is affected. Instead of a Poissonian recurrence time distribution, a temporal repulsion of extreme events is found in the finite system that depends on the avalanche size rather than on its respective probability.

Deriving a decision variable from the time series of avalanches, this effect can be used to predict the occurrence of a particularly large event in the next time step. The larger the magnitude of these target avalanches, the better is their predictability.